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Jonathan Projected to Win by Close Margin

With election results to be completed in the next few hours, Forward Nigeria is projecting a comfortable but close election win in Nigeria’s historic election.

Director of Forward Nigeria Von Kemedi said: “Before people claim victory, every vote needs to be counted. When that is done, the president will be reelected.”

Turnout is down across Nigeria from the 2011 impacting results in many states. General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has won conclusively across many of the states in the North East and North West, increasing his margin in states he did well in 2011, such as Borno and Kano, but at the same time turnout is down in most of these states.

However, Kemedi is confident that incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will still hold the state of Taraba and stay strong in Adamawa in the North East, while keeping 40% of the vote in Kaduna, which is the second largest voter base in the North West.

The North Central remains a toss-up with Jonathan winning Nasarawa, FCT, and Plateau, while Benue was too close to call at press time.

South West has seen a large drop in turnout and Lagos remains still out. Ekiti went strongly for Jonathan and one of the few states to see increase. Buhari has won Oyo and Ogun by comfortable margins, but turnout decrease will see limited numbers in his total vote return.

South South and South East, Jonathan’s strongholds, look to a decisive victory for Jonathan. States which APC claimed they would win before the election turned out not to be the case.

Imo will be 75-80% for Jonathan, Edo at least 60%, while Rivers will come in at 90% for the incumbent president. The other eight of the South South’s and South East’s 11 states will be 90% and above for Jonathan.

“There’s a lot of noise out there, but we are working with actual election results. When all the votes are counted, the president will have a victory of a couple million votes,” said Forward Nigeria’s Kemedi.

State by state numbers will be released shortly and continually updated on Forward Nigeria’s website –


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